منابع مشابه
the effect of consciousness raising (c-r) on the reduction of translational errors: a case study
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Generalized Forecast Errors, A Change of Measure, and Forecast Optimality
This paper establishes properties of optimal forecasts under general loss functions, extending existing results obtained under speci c functional forms and data generating processes. We propose a new method that changes the probability measure under which the well-known properties of optimal forecasts under mean squared error loss can be recovered. We illustrate the proposed methods through an ...
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We investigate the presence and impact of forecast errors in the arrival rate of customers to a service system. Analysis of a large dataset shows that forecast errors can be large relative to the fluctuations naturally expected in a Poisson process. We show that ignoring forecast errors typically leads to overestimates of performance and that forecast errors of the magnitude seen in our dataset...
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D espite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 p...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1306279